A memberr of our team, Markel García-Díez, is co-authoring a paper published in the journal The Lancet Planetary Health. The study, leaded by Rachel Lowe PhD, is entitled "Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador", and started in 2016, during the stay of Markel in the Catalan Institute for Climate Sciences (IC3). The subject of the study is the integration of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in a dengue prediction model. This model could be used to develop early warning systems for the authorities responsible of public health in the areas under risk.
Dengue is a tropical disease which has a large impact in Latin America. It is propagated by the aedes aegypti mosquito, . Thus, situations with high temperatures and excess (of deficit) of rainfall can favour the proliferation of mosquitos and the propagation of the disease. The study is focused on the country of Ecuador. The climate of this region is directly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is predictable with months in advance by seasonal forecasts systems. In the paper, forecasts from the Climate Forecast System model initiated in January 2016 are used to produce a forecast of dengue incidence during the rest of 2016, when a very intense el Niño took place. This forecast is compared with the observed dengue cases over the same period. Apart from the CFS, the effectiveness of using a novel long-term ENSO forecast system developed in the IC3 for the same task is also tested.
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