Our colleague Joaquín Bedia has participated in the elaboration of the study "Background sampling and transferability of species distribution model ensembles under climate change" recently published in the journal Global and Planetary Change.
We study the sensitivity to pseudo-absence sampling as a determinant factor for species distribution model (SDM) stability and transferability under climate change conditions, focusing on European wide projections of Quercus robur as an illustrative case study. We explore the uncertainty in future projections derived from ten pseudo-absence realizations and three popular SDMs (GLM, RandomForest and MARS). The contribution of the pseudo-absence realization tothe uncertainty was higher in peripheral regions and clearly differed among the tested SDMs in the whole study domain, being MARS the most sensitive —with projections differing up to a 40% for different realizations,— and GLM the most stable. Accounting for this new source of SDM-dependent uncertainty is crucial when forming multi-model ensembles to undertake climate change projections.
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