A pilot application for sector tailored seasonal forecasting has been launched by Predictia, focusing on forest fire danger and considering as an illustrative application the Fire Weather Index (FWI). This index integrates the compound effect of four atmospheric variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind) involved in the propagation of a forest fire.
The pilot web application, provides global FWI seasonal forecasts derived from the NCEP/NCAR CFSv2 global forecast system. Together with these operational predictions, the application gives information on the historical performance of the forecasts over the last 20 years, obtained from the CFSv2 model retrospective forecasts. This information allows the user to interpret the current prediction (is it high or low in a climatological context?) and to overlap with the regions where it could be valuable (according to a particular validation score, the ROCSS).
These forecasts are updated quarterly to show the forecast for the upcoming seasons. Explore the global forecast of Fire Weather Index and get a glance on the potential of this type of products.